Pension Insurance Modeling System (PIMS) | Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation

Recent PIMS Reports

Information about PIMS	Third Party Research Using PIMS
Single Employer Contribution Policy Assumption Derisking Sensitivity and Economic Downturn Stress Test (FY 2017) ME-PIMS Mass Withdrawal Assumptions Memo ME-PIMS Sensitivity Tests: Employment growth, Solvency parameters, Wage Base floor (FY 2014) Projection of Levels of Future Active Participants in Multiemployer Plans (FY 2013) Examination of Multiemployer Funding – Rehabilitation Plans (FY 2013) (PDF, rev C-2 ) (PDF, orig C-2) How Do PIMS Results Reflect Varying Rates of Return? (FY 2013) A brief history of PIMS (FY 2012) PIMS overview (FY 2011) The Cost of Pension Insurance, Including Bankruptcy Probability Modeling Methods and Results (2002) Models for retirement policy analysis, Chapter 11: PIMS (1999)	Third Party PIMS Users Congressional Budget Office Society of Actuaries Publications The Rising Tide of Pension Contributions Post-2013: How Much and When? Stretching the Corridor: The Effects of Extended Rate Stabilization on Defined Benefit Plan Funding Requirements Observations on Input and Output Smoothing: How do they affect the funding of defined benefit plans Proposed Pension Funding Stabilization: How Does It Affect the Single-Employer Defined Benefit System? The Rising Tide of Pension Contributions Post-2008: How much and when?

Information about PIMS

Third Party Research Using PIMS

Third Party PIMS Users

Publications

The Rising Tide of Pension Contributions Post-2013: How Much and When?
Stretching the Corridor: The Effects of Extended Rate Stabilization on Defined Benefit Plan Funding Requirements
Observations on Input and Output Smoothing: How do they affect the funding of defined benefit plans
Proposed Pension Funding Stabilization: How Does It Affect the Single-Employer Defined Benefit System?
The Rising Tide of Pension Contributions Post-2008: How much and when?

PIMS Peer Review History

The Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP-21) requires PBGC to contract with a capable agency or organization that is independent of PBGC to conduct annual peer reviews of SE PIMS and ME PIMS. The table below outlines current and previous PIMS Peer Reviews.

Topic(s)	Contractor	Final Report
Comprehensive Model Risk Management and governance review. Assess conceptual soundness, operational validity, efficacy in functionality and performance, transparency and sufficiency of documentation, and effectiveness of model governance.	McKinsey & Company, Inc.	PIMS Single-Employer Peer Review PIMS Multiemployer Peer Review
Review of Capital Market Assumptions and the modeling of interest rates, asset returns and other macroeconomic variables.	Mercer (US) Inc.	PBGC PIMS Peer Review
Review of the data inputs and the process followed for preparing the data sets used. Develop recommendations to improve the plan, participant, and plan sponsor data used to produce the projections.	Buck Global, LLC	PBGC PIMS Peer Review
Review of PBGC’s Multiemployer (ME) PIMS Recoded Model.	Cheiron	MAP-21 Peer Review FY 2019
Modeling of single-employer plan sponsors’ contribution policies and provide analysis on risk transfer activities. Modeling of changes in the number of active participants in multiemployer plans.	Advanced Analytical Consulting Group, Inc.	MAP-21 PIMS Peer Review FY 2019 Multiemployer Active Participants Single-employer Risk Transfers Single-employer Contributions
Review of the current modeling of bankruptcy and industry-wide clusters of bankruptcies, as well as contagion effects that might spread through the multiemployer pension system.	Advanced Analytical Consulting Group, Inc.	MAP-21 PIMS Peer Review FY 2018 Bankruptcy Report Contagion Report
An in-depth, review of PBGC’s SE and ME PIMS. Split into three deliverables over three years: FY 2016 and FY 2017 — stochastic modeling process, coding of the models, internal consistency, and ease of implementation of modifications FY 2015 — simulation of plan sponsors and plan viability, modeling of sponsor failure risk and PBGC plan administration, PIMS model development, modification, and refinement FY 2014 — modeling of macroeconomic variables, PIMS documentation, model output. Procurement was led by Social Security Administration.	FTI, Inc. (via Social Security Administration)	MAP-21 Peer Reviews (FY 2016) MAP-21 Peer Reviews (FY 2015) MAP-21 Peer Reviews (FY 2014)
Review and evaluate the data, assumptions, and methods underlying models of the PBGC’s pension plan insurance programs and related models (PIMS) of pension funding and sustainability. Procurement was led by Social Security Administration.	Retirement Research Consortium, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Brookings Institute	MAP-21 Peer Reviews (FY 2013)
Evaluate the soundness of the economic and statistical theory and actuarial principles that underlie ME-PIMS	Buck Consultants	Review of ME-PIMS (FY 2012)